Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal Developments Blog wrote a piece last week noting that the Home Buyer Tax Credit might have actually had the effect of spurring home sales and helping the housing market rejuvenate. He notes that seasonally adjusted existing home sales were up 7.6% in April compared to March, and that new home sales were up a seasonally adjusted 14.8% from March to April.
This is fairly consistent with what we saw on the street, in our market of the Hudson Valley in New York State. We saw a literal explosion of activity in April, with our company having by far the biggest month in our history for new transactions in contract. Moreover, the overall market seemed to jump as well, with increases of about 50% from last year in most of the counties we service.
The question now becomes whether the increase in home sales was simply a reallocation of sales from the summer to the spring – that is, did the tax credit pull transactions that would have taken place in the summer, or did it actually create transactions that otherwise would not have existed? My take on this is that most of the increase was simply a reallocation, but the fact that the market was up in some of our higher priced counties indicates that the overall market did experience a lift. For example, we service Westchester County, where the median sales price of almost $600,000 is beyond the reach of most qualifying tax credit buyers; nevertheless, sales were up 59% from the previous April. The tax credit cannot account for that kind of increase in a higher priced county.
That said, as I write this, we’re definitely experiencing a relatively slow May. Whether that’s because agents and buyers are simply exhausted from the rigorous activity of April, and focused now on getting this large pipeline of open transactions to the closing table by the end of June, or whether it’s a sign that the market is going to slow through the summer, remains to be seen.