The July closing numbers were just put out by the National Association of Realtors, and they show a pretty dismal sales month in July. Existing home sales were down 27.3% from July of last year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million homes.
This is nothing particularly surprising, given that anyone in the industry knew that the market slowed considerably this summer. Although the summer is generally an active time in the real estate market, the first summer in two years without a tax credit incentivizing buyers, and coming two months after the deadline for the last tax credit that sucked a lot of buyers into the spring, is unsurprisingly weak.
Again, this is not surprising. The government provided a strong incentive for buyers to move quickly to purchase a home by April 30th, so a lot of people who would normally purchase in the summer moved their plans up. That’s making the summer weaker than normal. On top of that, recent economic news has not been strong, which dampens consumer enthusiasm for jumping into the housing market.
Is this a long term trend? Probably not.
The housing market has been buffeted by a series of distortions for the past five years:
1. The subprime market (2004-05).
The first distortion in the housing market was back five years ago, when the appetite for mortgage backed securities on Wall Street created a perverse incentive for lenders to expand their guidelines to allow people to stretch in order to purchase a home. If you look at historical market cycles, we were due for a slowdown sometime in 2004-05, but instead we got two or three more years of significant appreciation. That appreciation was largely artificial, juiced by novel loan products that did not conform to traditional underwriting guidelines and made homeowners out of people who had no savings and little income.
Those people should not have been buying homes, but the expansion of the buyer pool to include them kept putting upward pressure on prices for two years beyond when the normal market cycle should have ended. We’ve been feeling the hangover for that particular narcotic since 2007, and we haven’t sweated out all the poison yet.
2. The Financial Crisis (September 2008-April 2009)
We mark the second major distortion of the market as the financial crisis in late 2008, after the collapse of Lehman that prompted the creation of TARP and a severe correction in the stock market. For the next six months, the housing market was just dead. At the time, I commented in my company blog about how people were only buying homes out of circumstance, not by choice: they were buying a home if they absolutely needed to, but no one who was not forced to move was choosing to buy something in those difficult financial times.
The subprime market was a positive distortion on the demand side, but the Lehman collapse distored the market the other way — dramatically lowering demand for a six month people while people considered whether we were entering a second Great Depression. That distortion drove prices down much more quickly and aggressively than we would normally see in a market correction, and in some ways accelerated the transition through the change from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market.
3. The Home Buyer Tax Credit
And finally, the various iterations of the Home Buyer Tax Credit acted as a large-scale distortion of the housing market by propping the market up at a time when it might otherwise have struggled. I don’t think a lot of people bought a house that otherwise would not have just to obtain an $8,000 tax credit, but i do think that the tax credit changed the psychology of the market, emboldening some buyers who might have been fearful and encouraging people in the industry to keep plugging away.
But the tax credit also acted as a smaller-scale distortion of the market by shifting transactions around to conform to the deadlines and their extensions. Essentially, the tax credit exerted a gravitational pull for buyers, who tended to procrastinate up to the deadline. When the credit was expected to expire in November 2009, we saw a dramatic increase in activity in the six weeks prior to the expiration. Then when the tax credit was extended to April 2010, we saw three months of lackadaisical activity where buyers had no urgency. Then, again, a big surge of activity in late March and April, followed by a few months (including now) of a slowdown.
So although the tax credit on balance helped, I think, the market into a bit of a recovery by encouraging home ownership and giving buyers on the fence a reason to buy, it also created short-term distortions by shifting buyers from one part of the year to another depending on when the deadlines fell. So we’re seeing that now — buyers who were going to buy in the summer bought in the spring, and buyers who are looking now feel no urgency, because they missed out on the tax credit and they’ve come to discredit predictions that rates might be rising (after two years of those predictions proving false).
So what’s going to happen now? My guess is that we’re still feeling the hangover from the tax credit, but that in a few months we’ll return to normalcy — that is, a normal BUYER’S MARKET, which doesn’t necessarily mean a return to “normal appreciation” in the market.
The big issue right now is the economy: if people feel anxious about their job or their income, they are likely to put off decisions to buy a new home. So the biggest obstacle to recovery in the housing market is the same obstacle to recovery in the overall economy: a reduction in the unemployment rates.